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When will the next financial crisis happen?

By Olivier KLEIN


A transcript of my speech at the round table at the 19th Rencontres Économiques d’Aix-en-Provence on 6 July 2019 on the topic “When will the next financial crisis happen?”.

The most recent major financial crisis led to a risk of deflation that justified unconventional monetary policies, with zero or even negative short-term and long-term interest rates approaching zero because of Quantitative Easing. Setting long-term interest rates below the nominal growth rate helps those with excessive debt regain their financial well-being more easily. At the same time and in conjunction, it also revives the economy.

Today, we are no longer exposed to the risk of deflation, given our undeniable growth and a sharp recovery in credit, albeit earlier in the US than in the eurozone […]

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