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The narrow line between : rising interest rates & recession

By Brigitte TROQUIER


The war in Ukraine will likely cause an inevitable landing of post-pandemic economies. All trends are exacerbated by this event which amplifies already perceptible vulnerabilities in supplies, costs, those of raw materials in particular...

The Fed’s ultimate goal is not to bring growth to an abrupt halt. They want to support a soft landing for an economy considered to be overheating :
The overheating economy is not a state defined by precise criteria or codes. It is identified by a set of tension indicators on specific markets, the labor market being central in its diagnosis. For several months, and despite a labour force participation rate that remains below its average pre-pandemic level, this market has been under pressure …. The imbalance in the real estate sector is another feature drawing the attention of the monetary authorities.

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